Retention Intelligence
Customer Retention, Cohort Quality & State-Level Performance
Active Customer Rate
54.1%
vs 60–70% benchmark
One-and-Done Rate
62.7%
vs 40–50% benchmark
1→2 Order Rate
37.3%
Target: 45%+
Dormant Customers
28,952
46% of base · 18m+ inactive
Win-Back Opportunity
$1.5M
4,677 dormant · 3+ orders
Shopify · Apr 2024 – Apr 2026
Monthly Order Volume — Seasonality & Growth
7-Day Sample · Shopify Online Channels
Order Frequency Distribution
Section 02
2nd-Order Rate at 29.9% — Below 50–60% Benchmark
"The 2024 cohort reaches order 2 at half the rate of the 2019 cohort, and spends 78% less on average. This is not because the product got worse — it is because the post-purchase experience and retention infrastructure have not scaled with acquisition volume."
MnB Customer Analytics Report · April 2026
Cohort Data · Full Detail
Performance by Acquisition Year
Section 03
Retention & Dormancy by Persona
12-Month Retention vs Benchmark
Active Rate & Dormancy by Persona
Dormancy Risk
Dormant Count
Section 04
Retention by State — CVR & Returning Customer Mix
State Detail · Shipping Strategy Data
CVR vs Returning Customer % by State
Section 05
Key Findings & Action Priorities
Priority · 1→2 Order Rate
2nd-Order Rate at 29.9% — Below 50–60% Benchmark
The 2024 cohort converts to a 2nd order at 29.9% vs the 50–60% DTC benchmark — and at half the rate of the 2019 cohort. The 84-day return window is real: customers who come back do so within 84 days. The retention flows being built will directly capture this window before it closes.
Critical · HVL Retention Gap
HVL 12-Month Retention: 37.6% vs 60%+ Benchmark
High-Value Loyalists are the most valuable retention segment ($2,153 CLTV each) and they're being lost at 2.4× the acceptable rate. 1,980 dormant HVLs represent ~$4.3M in unrealized CLTV. Highest-priority win-back segment — personal outreach, not mass email.
Warning · State CVR Spread
73-Point CVR Spread: FL 72.9% vs NJ 26.8%
Northeast and West Coast underperform due to shipping friction — high free-shipping thresholds relative to median AOV. CA alone has 276 abandoned checkouts per period, 47% from returning customers. Loopy Gold+ free shipping in CA, NY, NJ, NH recovers an estimated 871 orders/year at $63K contribution with zero incremental CAC.
Warning · Off-Peak Attrition
Jul–Sep Revenue Only 20.3% of Annual — Seasonal Churn Risk
Summer is the retention danger zone. Customers who don't repurchase in Q3 are significantly more likely to go fully dormant. A grilling season campaign targeting Day-to-Day and Emerging Loyalists in Jul–Aug can defend the 20.3% floor and push toward 25%+.
Opportunity · Win-Back
$1.5M in Zero-CAC Win-Back Available Now
4,677 dormant customers with 3+ orders and $500+ historical LTV. Email-only reactivation at 20% = 935 recovered customers × ~$500 avg spend = $467K immediate revenue, plus 24-month compounding. These customers already know the brand — no acquisition spend needed.
In Progress — Retention Infrastructure
Loopy + Retention Flows Will Shift These Numbers
Loopy loyalty program and retention email flows currently in development. Once live: 1) the 84-day window captures 1→2 conversion before it closes; 2) Loopy Gold+ fixes the state-level shipping abandonment; 3) the 3rd-order trigger locks in Emerging Loyalists permanently. Each percentage point improvement in 1→2 rate = ~$220K annualized revenue at current acquisition volume.
ℹ
Data sources: Cohort quality (2nd/3rd order rates, LTV) from MnB Customer Analytics Report · April 2026 (62,811 customers, March 2018–April 2026). State CVR and returning customer % from MnB Shipping Strategy v3.4 (Shopify checkout data). Monthly order volume from Shopify via Windsor.ai. Order frequency distribution from 7-day Shopify sample.
Data Sources & Provenance
⬤ Live API Shopify
Monthly orders · Order frequency · 2-year trend
⬤ Mgmt. Report MnB Analytics Report
Cohort 2nd/3rd order rates · Persona retention
⬤ Mgmt. Report MnB Shipping Strategy v3.4
State CVR · Returning customer % · Abandonment
Cohort quality data (2nd/3rd order rates, avg spend by year) is from internal management analysis of full Shopify order history (March 2018–April 2026). State CVR data is from Shopify checkout funnel by state.
⬤ Live API = direct platform data, no manual entry
⬤ Mgmt. Report = internal estimates, not independently audited
Meat N' Bone — Marketing Intelligence Dashboard · April 4, 2026
Confidential · Password protected · Data snapshot — not auto-refreshing